Impacts of emergency health protection measures upon air quality, traffic and public health: evidence from Oxford, UK.

Emergency responses to the COVID-19 pandemic led to major changes in travel behaviours and economic activities in 2020. Machine learning provides a reliable approach for assessing the contribution of these changes to air quality. This study investigates impacts of health protection measures upon air pollution and traffic emissions and estimates health and economic impacts arising from these changes during two national 'lockdown' periods in Oxford, UK. Air quality improvements were most marked during the first lockdown with reductions in observed NO2 concentrations of 38% (SD ± 24.0%) at roadside and 17% (SD ± 5.4%) at urban background locations. Observed changes in PM2.5, PM10 and O3 concentrations were not significant during first or second lockdown. Deweathering and detrending analyses revealed a 22% (SD ± 4.4%) reduction in roadside NO2 and 2% (SD ± 7.1%) at urban background with no significant changes in the second lockdown. Deweathered-detrended PM2.5 and O3 concentration changes were not significant, but PM10 increased in the second lockdown only. City centre traffic volume reduced by 69% and 38% in the first and second lockdown periods. Buses and passenger cars were the major contributors to NO2 emissions, with relative reductions of 56% and 77% respectively during the first lockdown, and less pronounced changes in the second lockdown. While car and bus NO2 emissions decreased during both lockdown periods, the overall contribution from buses increased relative to cars in the second lockdown. Sustained NO2 emissions reduction consistent with the first lockdown could prevent 48 lost life-years among the city population, with economic benefits of up to £2.5 million. Our findings highlight the critical importance of decoupling emissions changes from meteorological influences to avoid overestimation of lockdown impacts and indicate targeted emissions control measures will be the most effective strategy for achieving air quality and public health benefits in this setting.

Abrupt but smaller than expected changes in surface air quality attributable to COVID-19 lockdowns.

The COVID-19 lockdowns led to major reductions in air pollutant emissions. Here, we quantitatively evaluate changes in ambient NO2, O3, and PM2.5 concentrations arising from these emission changes in 11 cities globally by applying a deweathering machine learning technique. Sudden decreases in deweathered NO2 concentrations and increases in O3 were observed in almost all cities. However, the decline in NO2 concentrations attributable to the lockdowns was not as large as expected, at reductions of 10 to 50%. Accordingly, O3 increased by 2 to 30% (except for London), the total gaseous oxidant (O x = NO2 + O3) showed limited change, and PM2.5 concentrations decreased in most cities studied but increased in London and Paris. Our results demonstrate the need for a sophisticated analysis to quantify air quality impacts of interventions and indicate that true air quality improvements were notably more limited than some earlier reports or observational data suggested.